Point spread
UL −10.5
Book UL -10.5
69.2%
UL @ ULM
UL 39 – ULM 21. FPI (net points vs an average FBS team, neutral field): UL -3.4 vs ULM -24.0. Difference -20.6 plus +2.65 home-field
−7.5 vs the number
Week 11–12 · 2026 · 134 games · Updated 9:36 PM EST
The bot that prices the board.
Best point spreads, over/unders, and player props on this week’s FBS slate — from ESPN FPI, a logistic margin model, and opponent-adjusted usage. Add plays to your card. Nothing is wagered here.
History
ESPN Football Power Index, last-five results, ranks, and week-1 usage for every skill player on the board.
Math
Neutral FPI differential plus 2.65 points of home-field. Cover chance from a logistic CDF (σ = 16.8) versus the posted number.
Science
Offensive and defensive efficiencies shift the total. Player lines are Bayesian-regressed week-1 stats scaled by opponent defense and game environment.
The bot’s card
Best bets this week
16 ranked plays · spread · total · props
Point spread
Side vs the posted number
UL @ ULMPoint spread
WAKE +1.5
Book SMU -1.5
63.2%
WAKE @ SMU
WAKE 32 – SMU 29. FPI (net points vs an average FBS team, neutral field): WAKE +17.8 vs SMU +11.9. Difference -6.0 plus +2.65 home-field
−5.0 vs the number
Point spread
TULN +2.5
Book RICE -2.5
63.2%
TULN @ RICE
TULN 31 – RICE 29. FPI (net points vs an average FBS team, neutral field): TULN -9.8 vs RICE -14.8. Difference -5.0 plus +2.65 home-field
−5.0 vs the number
Point spread
MICH +5.5
Book UCLA -5.5
61.9%
UCLA @ MICH
UCLA 26 – MICH 25. FPI (net points vs an average FBS team, neutral field): UCLA +12.6 vs MICH +9.2. Difference -3.4 plus +2.65 home-field
+4.5 vs the number
Point spread
FRES +9.5
Book TXST -9.5
61.9%
FRES @ TXST
FRES 27 – TXST 33. FPI (net points vs an average FBS team, neutral field): FRES +0.5 vs TXST +3.0. Difference +2.4 plus +2.65 home-field
−4.5 vs the number
Over / under
Total vs the market
Over / under
Over 39.5
Model 61.5 · WYO 36–UTEP 26
91.5%
WYO @ UTEP
Scoring environment from FPI efficiencies (0–100): WYO off 34 / def 42 vs UTEP off 17 / def 25. Total 61.5 is league baseline 55.6 shifted by those deviations.
+22.0 vs the total
Over / under
Over 38.5
Model 55.0 · NDSU 31–HAW 23
85.6%
NDSU @ HAW
Scoring environment from FPI efficiencies (0–100): NDSU off 32 / def 79 vs HAW off 37 / def 33. Total 55.0 is league baseline 55.6 shifted by those deviations.
+16.5 vs the total
Over / under
Over 43.5
Model 59.0 · IOWA 32–ILL 27
84.2%
IOWA @ ILL
Scoring environment from FPI efficiencies (0–100): IOWA off 58 / def 86 vs ILL off 76 / def 45. Total 59.0 is league baseline 55.6 shifted by those deviations.
+15.5 vs the total
Over / under
Under 72.5
Model 58.0 · TTU 28–OKST 29
82.7%
TTU @ OKST
Scoring environment from FPI efficiencies (0–100): TTU off 57 / def 72 vs OKST off 80 / def 66. Total 58.0 is league baseline 55.6 shifted by those deviations.
−14.5 vs the total
Over / under
Over 44.5
Model 58.5 · NU 22–OSU 37
81.9%
NU @ OSU
Scoring environment from FPI efficiencies (0–100): NU off 77 / def 64 vs OSU off 78 / def 81. Total 58.5 is league baseline 55.6 shifted by those deviations.
+14.0 vs the total
Player props
Regressed usage × opponent defense
Player prop
D. Mbadinga Under 0.5
Anytime TD · GASO RB · proj 0.27
77%
GASO @ GAST
David Mbadinga
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 0.27
Player prop
D. Roche Under 0.5
Anytime TD · ODU RB · proj 0.27
77%
ODU @ CONN
Devin Roche
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 0.27
Player prop
D.J. Crowther Over 0.5
Anytime TD · USF RB · proj 1.4
75%
MEM @ USF
D.J. Crowther
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 1.4
Player prop
J. Carter Over 0.5
Anytime TD · MEM RB · proj 1.4
75%
MEM @ USF
Jaylin Carter
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 1.4
Player prop
L. Winfield Over 0.5
Anytime TD · UL QB · proj 1.4
75%
UL @ ULM
Lunch Winfield
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 1.4
Player prop
D. Ferguson Jr. Over 0.5
Anytime TD · PITT RB · proj 1.4
75%
FSU @ PITT
Damon Ferguson Jr.
Poisson anytime-TD chance from recent punch plus a goal-line prior. Posted as a yes/no at 0.5.
proj 1.4